I Thought That Didn't Sound Right

For more than a month we kept hearing that OMG THE WORLD IS ENDING BECAUSE 800,000 FEDERAL WORKERS NOT PAID! And I thought 800,000 sounded high considering the small percentage of agencies involved.  But, whatever.

And it was going to wreck the economy and cause a recession.  Which sounded odd, so I looked up the numbers of those employed in the US: 129,630,000 full time.

If I did the math right that meant that 0.6% of the US work force was delayed in getting paid.  How does less than 1% having a delay in pay damage the entire nation's economy?  Sure, it has the potential to affect the employees concerned and a circle of vendors they use, but the whole U.S. economy?

Then last week I heard a couple things that got my attention.  First, it appears that 800,000 is an exaggeration.  It was more like 350,000.  That means less than 0.3% of the US workforce was affected.  Second, economic numbers for the affected time frame came out - and the economy boomed.

I assume they've moved on to a different narrative by today.  Being shown to be wrong over and over again doesn't seem to phase them.